For the past few days, we have been watching Gold and Silver expecting a possible trend change with a reversal to the long side of the markets. Thursday’s rally was not quite enough, although it was close, we are staying short.
The declining volume and lack of real interest to the upside for now tell us that we need more evidence that a rally can hold. The algorithm we use has many other factors besides price that trigger reversals, price, volume, and volatility.
The bottom line is our mechanical method stayed short, which is where we will stay. I can make a case for a rally but also know that the most important part of trading is consistency, discipline and following your methods that produce a 66%-win rate.
Trading is simple, opinions are not. Follow the trend and the rules. For today we are short Gold and Silver, if the markets stay lower, we will not be reversing Monday.