Futures Portfolios Weekly Update

To join Futures Portfolio Text Group, text futures to (872)395-6371

Futures Symbol Guide


We had small losses this week which is not unexpected given the recent recovery off the lows be patient and stay disciplined.

Traders are an impatient lot largely because of the promotion and acceptance of the efficacy of short-term trading. Short-term trading is great for brokerage firms that make money by frequent trading- but bad for those doing it. I have never seen a consistently profitable short-term trader.

Study what we have made this year in the majority of the Futures Model Portfolios. We should only care what we have at the end of the year because we always have periods of gains and losses. But at the end of the day all that matters is: did we make money this year? Here are the yearly returns for several of the popular

Model Portfolios:
350k 44.6%
180k 34.1%
45k 36.2%

Keep in mind the average managed futures account is up less than 2% for the year. So even with greatly reduced leveraged, we have outperformed the futures funds by a huge multiple.

Remember, we can never miss a major move nor can we be in a losing trade for long. The algorithm was created based on doing the opposite of what the vast majority of traders do in their trading.

Amateurs continuously violate our trading rules and often end up losing instead of winning. Over the long term, we make a lot of money. Over any given short-term period, we can have losses and often those losing periods can last for a year or more. You must be committed to following the rules and trading exactly as the algorithm directs.

Markets usually trend about 35% of the time and 65% of the time they find themselves in congestion. Congestion always leads to breakouts which is what our algorithm is based upon. In addition, unlike other trend following methods, we do not get whip-sawed in congestion. The algorithm employs factors that eliminate a high percentage of potential whip-saws.

All you must do as a trader is to follow our simple trading rules. Never think you can outguess our algorithm because we cannot and you certainly cannot. No ego=success in markets and those that insist on being smarter than the market end up broke.

The key is consistency and discipline as always. Some ask what does your algorithm pay attention to? The best way of answering that question is what it does not pay attention to. You see, the algorithm looks at significant chart points, price and time. News, fundamentals and all forms and variations of technical analysis are totally and completely ignored.

We make money by surrendering to what the market is doing- if we are in an up-trend we are long and if we are in a down-trend we are short. How simple a concept- yet 97% of all traders are unable or unwilling to grasp it.

The algorithm does not pick “turning points” per se, but it does get aboard a new trend quickly because that is what it was designed to do. Remember, we are trying to “mirror the market” and we do that by doing what the market is doing. If we are long and the market is going down, at some point, we will get short, etc. You may not like the fact that at times it seems we are late to the party, but that is a misperception and all I can say to that is: stay disciplined and follow the rules.

Our performance is not based on “forecasting” or “analysis” but rather what a price of a commodity is doing right now. The words “too high” or “two low” are not in our dictionary because no one knows what “too high” or “too low” is in trading- although the multitude of foolish losing traders think they do.

We make big money by being long term position trend traders- nothing more-nothing less. You need to be 100% disciplined to replicate the Model Portfolios and the more you deviate from full discipline, the worse your performance.

***New Trade Alert***

Reverse March Wheat to long

Reverse Feb Lean Hogs to short

*Apply these trades to all pertinent Model Portfolios*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Trades can be entered during the electronic night session or in the morning. There is some flexibility in terms of when you enter a new trade and this is because our profits are not marginal. Trade prices shown on the Model Portfolio spreadsheet are what I get for my own trades. Yours can be better or worse.

Don’t be shortsighted and look at one day or one week, this is about the long run, our returns are the best in the industry, history tells us if we follow the model and the rules we make lots of money.

226 K Portfolio is now 350k

72 K Portfolio is now 180k

28 K Portfolio is now 45k

16 K Portfolio is now 32k

70 K AG Portfolio

17k Portfolio is now 36k

New 28k

New 17K

5k (Old) is now 15k

5K (New) Corrected

Conceptual Basis of the Algorithmic Futures Trading Method

As trend followers, we only need a few big moves a year to make big bucks. My Mega-Trend Trading Method will get aboard a market and hang on for big moves. Because of it, we can achieve great profitability year in and year out. We look to hit home runs- not singles.

Most trend following methods have a low winning trade percentage (typically 32-39%) and for that to work there must be a few big winners to offset the frequent losers. However, my method does not suffer from this problem due to an overall 66% winning trade percentage.